DAILY MLB INTELLIGENCE

Only bet when the price is wrong.

Independent game probability, American sportsbook odds, line movement, sharp/steam signals, bet-vs-money splits, confirmed lineups, pitching, bullpen availability, injuries, weather, and sourced public context.

Date Demo data Deep context scan

RANKED OPPORTUNITIES

Best edges

PAPER = model has not passed validation gate

FULL SLATE

Game-by-game analysis

MODEL GOVERNANCE

What moves a recommendation

Base strengthSeason quality prior, independent of the sportsbook price.

Starting pitcherSeason run prevention and strikeout indicators, capped to prevent overreaction.

LineupConfirmed batting order and current offensive quality. Unconfirmed lineups widen uncertainty.

BullpenRelief-pitch workload over the prior 1-3 days as a fatigue signal.

Public contextFresh, sourced reports such as travel disruption or a late scratch. Small maximum weight.

PriceSportsbook odds are evaluated after the baseball model, using no-vig probability and expected ROI.

Line movementOpening/first-observed price, current consensus, 60-minute velocity, dispersion, and synchronized steam across books.

Sharp/public splitConfigured sharp-book movement plus bet-vs-money divergence and reverse-line movement when a verified split feed is available.

House need proxyEstimated from aggregate stake share and price. It is explicitly not presented as any single sportsbook's actual liability.

No system can guarantee betting profits. This build defaults to research/paper mode until walk-forward testing demonstrates acceptable ROI, calibration, closing-line value, and drawdown. Market movement is treated as a separate execution overlay rather than being allowed to contaminate the independent baseball probability.